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Another Fed Cut? November 20, 2007

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AP story recapping a busy day on Wall Street.  “But in a separate economic forecast, they pointed to slowing growth next year, an uptick in unemployment and moderating inflation — which would seem to portend a possible rate decrease.”

My question is….did the market really interpret the Fed notes as implying a future rate cut?  Rising unemployment, housing is headed for/in the shitter, economic growth slowing, but the dollar and oil (@$98!!) is headed in the wrong direction for rate cuts.  Maybe I need to brush up on my Macro.  Interesting post over at Wallstrip, courtesy of Mr. Lindzon.

Either way the volatility today helped me out.  Thanks to the action I was able to cut my losses on the Google position– tip of the hat to the dead cat.  Bastard.  All in all, netted 15% last month.  Not bad.  Hell of a lot better than sitting in the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund.

 The Unsure Businessman


Market Lessons: Dead Cat Bounce November 20, 2007

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A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”. 

Thank you Wikipedia, but where was the warning before I got juked by the less than lively feline?  I’ve never really liked cats.

 Lesson learned.

Graph: the “bounce” is that little green bastard

DCB chart

How to Become an Ambassador November 19, 2007

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Lie. Cheat. Steal. Make large contributions to Bush.

 PBS news program this morning introduced me to this guy.  Old news, same old story Washington Post 7/29/2005.  Roland E. Arnall, former Chairman of Ameriquest, received a Presidential appointment from G.W. Bush to the Ambassadorship (is that a word?) of Denmark.  Great.  Good for Mr. Arnall.  Wait a minute; who is this guy and what makes him more qualifed than your’s truly?  Entrepreneur, good.  16 years serving Cal State University system, good.  Chairman of one of the biggest predatory-lenders in this country, good?

This guy became a billionaire by stealing from other people.  On the SAME DAY of his appointment, Ameriquest– according to the article, he “controls” it but I haven’t looked to see exactly what the ownership structure looks like– set aside almost half a BILLION, with a B, dollars in anticipation of predatory lending settlements.  How cocky can you get??  Nominating this guy on the same day that he admits to a crime spree spanning the nation!  I long for the day when I can become part of the class that doesn’t go to jail for crimes, but gets filthy rich and sent to Europe with my own embassy.  WTF? 

Part of me wants to beat my head into concrete.  But the other part of me wants to go start a lending company and steal from people so I can become Ambassador of somewhere cool…Netherlands perhaps?

Interesting fact from the PBS show: someone, cite?, estimates that total fallout from the Subprime Scandal will be $400 billion.  Stated that this is double (inflation adjusted?)  the damage done by the S&L scandal shortly before my time.   Wow. 

Moral of the story: If you’re going to be a crook, do it on a national scale and contribute to an international economic crisis.  Go big or go home, then go to Denmark and exchange all those US dollars (that you helped to drive into the dirt) for Kroner.  It’s the American way. (Copyright)

 Interesting facts:  Denmark has zero net foreign debt and is a net exporter of energy.  Hopefully our ambassador can talk some sense into these crazy Danes and teach them how to run a country properly.

Park in Denmark