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Market, Trades & Watches 12/18/07 December 19, 2007

Posted by Who? in Random.
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Long-term Market Outlook: Uncertain–lame duck to bearish???; looking at 5-yr MA for $INDU (weekly time frame), flat and flirting with the edge?  $NDX (same view/time frame) still positive slope; so…uncertain/ lame to bearish???

Short-term MO: I think all the negative pressures are starting to concentrate (inflation, recession?, housing, SubPrime, credit crunch, ridiculous P/E ratios…).  I think the little rebound we saw today across the indexes and stocks that got hammered yesterday is either half-assed optimism over Euro Central Banks‘ multi-billion cash injection or maybe just a slow down to yesterday’s free fall.  GS had earnings “surprise” and lost 3.5%???  Maybe the dak cloud hanging over the announcement; “horrible November”!  How about a little spin-control buddy?  Less-than desireable month or decrease in normal performance but horrible?  Come on man, help meeee help youuu.  If the smartest guys on the Street are struggling, I’m scared…or maybe just cautiously bearish.  

Bear Calls (vertical spread) on GOOG; underlying @ ~674.00. Looked like a good credit spread play, ~5% adverse movement cushion.  Time decay is my bitch.

Short EDU; underlying @ ~77.00. $SCHOOL is, as Paris would say, hot (98 on the Big Chart).  But its overpriced (EDU P/E=66) and I’m cautiously bearish near-term.  Technicals: bear MACD, bear STO, bull on the MA today but I think its a fake out pumped by todays news and that fact that despite overwhelming data– the market jumps at any bullish news like a begging dog lunging for a Scooby Snack.

Watches: Was thinking of short AAPL below 180, but I think the holiday numbers could redraw computer/DMP battle lines.  Drastically.  MSFT’s Vader-like chokehold is fading faster and faster. AAPL  P/E is inflated either way but I don’t want to bet against the star player going into OT.  FCX got rocked into a short-signal yesterday, but I don’t know if its best to short a Mining company with gold at 800/oz. 

Next, PALM.  Haven’t analyzed the stock yet, but saw the headline and the picture of the new TREO; if that’s their answer to iPhone and Blackberry, they should change the name of the company to Rosie Palms to more accurately reflect what they’ve been doing over there. 

Lastly, Solar.  Irrational bulls have high-jacked the bus.  Jump on or bet on 27-car pile up?  I know it could be “the” future of energy, but 170+ P/E ratios.  How about a little restraint before we put up the farm?  Ben Graham calls from the grave.

Overall: Uncertain, but saw some technicals that gave me enough of a feel to try to make some money.  No one likes sitting on the bench.  I don’t think SubPrime/credit crunch can be fixed with band aids and cash injections but I’m no Dylan Rattigan…yet???  NBC contact my agent if you’re interested; I have some Glamour Shots ready to go.

Question: Could Rudolph and the others bunker-down with the Writer’s Guild?  Will Yogi and Boo-Boo scab it?

Answer: “I don’t knowwww, Margohhh” (Name the movie)

Merry (insert PC term for December Holiday) and a Bearish New Year?

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